Drakes Cakes are yummy (but don't add up)
The Drake equation? For those of you not familiar with it. This is the equation that shows mathematically the number of alien civilizations that must exist. You have probably heard of it at some time. Usually when discussing UFOs in a conversation, someone inevitably says "oh yeah. They've proved mathematically that there are aliens, because of the vast numbers of......" blah blah and so on.
Here is the actual equation - N= R* x Fp x Ne x Fl x Fi x Fc x L
Here is the explanation of the factors
N is the number of intelligent civilizations in our milky way galaxy able to communicate with us
R* is the rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of life
This is valid. We can basically count how many stars in the milky way are similar to ours.
Fp is the fraction of those stars with planetary systems
We are just beginning to detect planets around other stars, never mind planetary systems. So far we can only detect very large planets like Jupiter. So getting an accurate fraction for this will be possible in the near future, but is not possible right now.
Ne is the numbers of planets per system suitable for life
In any way, shape or form could we know how may of the planets that are out there are suitable for life? Of course not. Remember, we don't even know how many planets or systems are out there, never mind what defines whether or not they are suitable for life. As if you can say 2 out of five planets are suitable for life. We cant even begin to comprehend what it would take to figure out this fraction.
Fl is the fraction of planets that are suitable where life actually appears
Since we have no idea how life actually begins (there are guesses, but if we knew the exact process, we could duplicate it) how can we give a fraction on life actually beginning, when we don't know exactly how it begins.
Fi is the fraction of life bearing planets where intelligent life actually emerges
As if we know the chances that life will eventually become intelligent life. What is it 33.3677 percent ? 68.2 percent ? 3.222 percent? How would you even begin to come up with that number?
Fc is The fraction of these intelligent civilizations that release detectable signs of their existence.
So somehow we know that if there are 247 intelligent civilizations, that 129 of them are sending messages to us. Again how do you come up with a fraction for this?
L is Lenth of time that these civilizations release these detectable signs into space
As if we can not only can we figure out how many intelligent civilizations there are, we can figure out how long they will last sending radio signals.
The SETI institute actually uses this formula to prove to the rest of us that there are aliens trying to talk to us.
Don't get me wrong, I love to imagine there are other beings out there. I would love to experience Close Encounters for myself. I will not say it is impossible. Anything is possible. I will however say, that we can not predict the probability of intelligent life out there with any accuracy. So just because there are billions and billions of stars out there, it doesn't mean anything (except that everyone can have one named after you for $62.95). We only know of one that contains life. And you can't come up with any type of statistics when you only know of one. This formula is the most gross case of accumulative error, I have ever seen. It basically says, lets take something we have no idea of knowing and multiply it by something else we have no idea of knowing, do this four or five times and then we will know how many civilizations are out there trying to talk to us. I am not even against SETI getting some moneys to monitor for aliens. Just dont tell me you already know how many there are before you have heard from any of them.
Here is the actual equation - N= R* x Fp x Ne x Fl x Fi x Fc x L
Here is the explanation of the factors
N is the number of intelligent civilizations in our milky way galaxy able to communicate with us
R* is the rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of life
This is valid. We can basically count how many stars in the milky way are similar to ours.
Fp is the fraction of those stars with planetary systems
We are just beginning to detect planets around other stars, never mind planetary systems. So far we can only detect very large planets like Jupiter. So getting an accurate fraction for this will be possible in the near future, but is not possible right now.
Ne is the numbers of planets per system suitable for life
In any way, shape or form could we know how may of the planets that are out there are suitable for life? Of course not. Remember, we don't even know how many planets or systems are out there, never mind what defines whether or not they are suitable for life. As if you can say 2 out of five planets are suitable for life. We cant even begin to comprehend what it would take to figure out this fraction.
Fl is the fraction of planets that are suitable where life actually appears
Since we have no idea how life actually begins (there are guesses, but if we knew the exact process, we could duplicate it) how can we give a fraction on life actually beginning, when we don't know exactly how it begins.
Fi is the fraction of life bearing planets where intelligent life actually emerges
As if we know the chances that life will eventually become intelligent life. What is it 33.3677 percent ? 68.2 percent ? 3.222 percent? How would you even begin to come up with that number?
Fc is The fraction of these intelligent civilizations that release detectable signs of their existence.
So somehow we know that if there are 247 intelligent civilizations, that 129 of them are sending messages to us. Again how do you come up with a fraction for this?
L is Lenth of time that these civilizations release these detectable signs into space
As if we can not only can we figure out how many intelligent civilizations there are, we can figure out how long they will last sending radio signals.
The SETI institute actually uses this formula to prove to the rest of us that there are aliens trying to talk to us.
Don't get me wrong, I love to imagine there are other beings out there. I would love to experience Close Encounters for myself. I will not say it is impossible. Anything is possible. I will however say, that we can not predict the probability of intelligent life out there with any accuracy. So just because there are billions and billions of stars out there, it doesn't mean anything (except that everyone can have one named after you for $62.95). We only know of one that contains life. And you can't come up with any type of statistics when you only know of one. This formula is the most gross case of accumulative error, I have ever seen. It basically says, lets take something we have no idea of knowing and multiply it by something else we have no idea of knowing, do this four or five times and then we will know how many civilizations are out there trying to talk to us. I am not even against SETI getting some moneys to monitor for aliens. Just dont tell me you already know how many there are before you have heard from any of them.
posted by Jim Fisher at 7:42 AM
4 Comments:
"I love to imagine there are other beings out there. I would love to experience Close Encounters for myself."
Be careful what you wish for. I love that scene in Independence Day where of the groupy like people are wanting that experience too. They reach out to the space ship as it opens and...Zappo-kablooey.
Truth is...there will be a day when earth is visited by extra-terrestrial beings. Jesus gives us a description of this in Matthew 13. Then Jesus quotes Himself in a later chapter, chapter 24. Check it out.
OK, so the Drake formula is not very accurate. Every factor has a huge error, so the final result has a confidence interval somewhere between zero and gazillion. That sucks. But instead of complaining about this, why don't you offer a better prediction?
The point of the blog raevmo is that it is an unpredictable item. We have one stat, humans. A prediction cannot be made whatsoever with only one statistic. Like i said, I am all for keeping an ear open just in case. Just don't tell me there is some percentage we know that aliens are out there trying to talk to us. The point of drakes formula is to make it appear probible that they (aliens)are out there, and to help raise money to listen for them. This is outright lying to people. And it has been passed arount as truth and repeated for so long people believe it.
I agree with Jim. Making predictions without any facts is just silly.
But it sure sounds great to our UFO crazed culture.
;-)
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